2009年11月26日木曜日

2012年地球は滅亡する!?

 日本で西暦2012年と言えば、団塊世代が60歳になって定年退職を迎えた2007年に続いて、退職年齢が5年延長され、まだ働いていた残りの人々が65歳になって、どっと退職する年だ。そのとき何が起きるのか。これが2012年問題だ。

 だが、この年、地球が滅亡するという説が、ネットを通じて、まことしやかに世界中に流れている。そうなれば、65歳まで仕事を続ける働き者に退職後の楽しみは存在しない。

 近く公開されるアメリカ映画の悪ノリ宣伝を含めて、この地球滅亡説を面白がって言いふらしているのがいる一方、まともに信じて残り3年間に全財産を使い尽くす算段をしているやからもいるそうだ。

 信じるもいい、信じないのもいい。ただ、アメリカのNASAは、2012年地球滅亡説を頭から否定している。
 以下、NASAのホームページから。
2012: Beginning of the End or Why the World Won't End?
11.06.09
Scenes from the upcoming film 2012. Courtesy Columbia Pictures.
              (Scenes from the motion picture "2012." Courtesy Columbia Pictures)


Remember the Y2K scare? It came and went without much of a whimper because of adequate planning and analysis of the situation. Impressive movie special effects aside, Dec. 21, 2012, won't be the end of the world as we know. It will, however, be another winter solstice.

Much like Y2K, 2012 has been analyzed and the science of the end of the Earth thoroughly studied. Contrary to some of the common beliefs out there, the science behind the end of the world quickly unravels when pinned down to the 2012 timeline. Below, NASA Scientists answer several questions that we're frequently asked regarding 2012.

Question (Q): Are there any threats to the Earth in 2012? Many Internet websites say the world will end in December 2012.
Answer (A): Nothing bad will happen to the Earth in 2012. Our planet has been getting along just fine for more than 4 billion years, and credible scientists worldwide know of no threat associated with 2012.

Q: What is the origin of the prediction that the world will end in 2012?
A: The story started with claims that Nibiru, a supposed planet discovered by the Sumerians, is headed toward Earth. This catastrophe was initially predicted for May 2003, but when nothing happened the doomsday date was moved forward to December 2012. Then these two fables were linked to the end of one of the cycles in the ancient Mayan calendar at the winter solstice in 2012 -- hence the predicted doomsday date of December 21, 2012.

Q: Does the Mayan calendar end in December 2012?
A: Just as the calendar you have on your kitchen wall does not cease to exist after December 31, the Mayan calendar does not cease to exist on December 21, 2012. This date is the end of the Mayan long-count period but then -- just as your calendar begins again on January 1 -- another long-count period begins for the Mayan calendar.

Q: Could a phenomena occur where planets align in a way that impacts Earth?
A: There are no planetary alignments in the next few decades, Earth will not cross the galactic plane in 2012, and even if these alignments were to occur, their effects on the Earth would be negligible. Each December the Earth and sun align with the approximate center of the Milky Way Galaxy but that is an annual event of no consequence.

"There apparently is a great deal of interest in celestial bodies, and their locations and trajectories at the end of the calendar year 2012. Now, I for one love a good book or movie as much as the next guy. But the stuff flying around through cyberspace, TV and the movies is not based on science. There is even a fake NASA news release out there..."
- Don Yeomans, NASA senior research scientist

Q: Is there a planet or brown dwarf called Nibiru or Planet X or Eris that is approaching the Earth and threatening our planet with widespread destruction?
A: Nibiru and other stories about wayward planets are an Internet hoax. There is no factual basis for these claims. If Nibiru or Planet X were real and headed for an encounter with the Earth in 2012, astronomers would have been tracking it for at least the past decade, and it would be visible by now to the naked eye. Obviously, it does not exist. Eris is real, but it is a dwarf planet similar to Pluto that will remain in the outer solar system; the closest it can come to Earth is about 4 billion miles.

Q: What is the polar shift theory? Is it true that the earth’s crust does a 180-degree rotation around the core in a matter of days if not hours?
A: A reversal in the rotation of Earth is impossible. There are slow movements of the continents (for example Antarctica was near the equator hundreds of millions of years ago), but that is irrelevant to claims of reversal of the rotational poles. However, many of the disaster websites pull a bait-and-shift to fool people. They claim a relationship between the rotation and the magnetic polarity of Earth, which does change irregularly, with a magnetic reversal taking place every 400,000 years on average. As far as we know, such a magnetic reversal doesn’t cause any harm to life on Earth. A magnetic reversal is very unlikely to happen in the next few millennia, anyway.

The Blue Marble: Next Generation
 Earth, as seen in the Blue Marble: Next Generation collection of images, showing the color of the planet's surface in high resolution. This image shows South America from September 2004.

Q: Is the Earth in danger of being hit by a meteor in 2012?
A: The Earth has always been subject to impacts by comets and asteroids, although big hits are very rare. The last big impact was 65 million years ago, and that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs. Today NASA astronomers are carrying out a survey called the Spaceguard Survey to find any large near-Earth asteroids long before they hit. We have already determined that there are no threatening asteroids as large as the one that killed the dinosaurs. All this work is done openly with the discoveries posted every day on the NASA NEO Program Office website, so you can see for yourself that nothing is predicted to hit in 2012.

Q: How do NASA scientists feel about claims of pending doomsday?
A: For any claims of disaster or dramatic changes in 2012, where is the science? Where is the evidence? There is none, and for all the fictional assertions, whether they are made in books, movies, documentaries or over the Internet, we cannot change that simple fact. There is no credible evidence for any of the assertions made in support of unusual events taking place in December 2012.

Q: Is there a danger from giant solar storms predicted for 2012?
A: Solar activity has a regular cycle, with peaks approximately every 11 years. Near these activity peaks, solar flares can cause some interruption of satellite communications, although engineers are learning how to build electronics that are protected against most solar storms. But there is no special risk associated with 2012. The next solar maximum will occur in the 2012-2014 time frame and is predicted to be an average solar cycle, no different than previous cycles throughout history.

Addition information concerning 2012 is available on the Web, at:

2009年11月23日月曜日

高層マンションの幸せ


 黒いスーツをきちんと着た男が、大きな箱を載せたカートを押しながら、マンションの玄関から出て行った。

 その後ろから、くたびれたラクダ色のカーディガン、膝の抜けた茶色いコーデュロイのズボンの中年男が、ぼさぼさの髪で、サンダルを履いてついていく。 同じような年頃、しわだらけのスカート、憔悴した表情の女が寄り添っていた。

 箱は、おもてに停めてあったワゴン車に移され、スーツの男が深々とお辞儀をし車を運転して去っていった。

 そのとき、やっと気が付いた。 人が死んだのだ。

 葬儀屋が遺体を引き取り、家族と思われる夫婦が見送っていたのだ。 どんよりと曇った寒い晩秋の午後の光景。

 東京の大規模マンションの住民は、自分の頭の上の階で人が生まれても死んでも気付かない。マンションの入り口には「忌中」の張り紙もなく、葬儀はどこか遠くの”セレモニーホール”で行われる。

 われわれ都会人は、「希薄な人間関係」という幸せを数千万円かけて手に入れているのだ。

2009年11月5日木曜日

冬が秋を襲う



 北の国では、冬が秋に襲いかかるようにやって来る。

 10月31日夜、北海道の大雪山系のふところに位置する層雲峡。風雪が紅葉の名残りがある山々の秋にとどめを刺すように襲来した。瞬く間に秋は死に、冬が世界を支配し真っ白になった。

 こんな劇的な季節の変化を見たことはない。季節は、たった一晩で交代するのだ。

 夏の入道雲と冬の霜柱が稀になった東京では、退屈きわまりない都会生活のように季節はだらだらとうつろうだけだ。

 東京から層雲峡温泉4泊5日飛行機代込み1日3食付き¥29,800。 うそのようなバカ安ツアーで遭遇した儲けモノの大自然のドラマ。都会人には非日常が日常の北の国。

 だが、秋が終わろうとしていたとき、この土地で、都会人も負けずにドラマを作っていた。

 層雲峡から大雪山系の黒岳頂上へはロープウエイとリフトを乗り継いで容易に登ることができる。山歩きには心もとない靴を履いた観光客には長靴を貸す親切なサービスもある。

 9月下旬、夕方、ロープウエイを止める時間になっても、男物のビジネスシューズが1足残っていた。長靴を借りて登った男が1人帰っていないことを意味する。ロープウエイの従業員たちが急きょ、周辺の山道を探したがみつからず、翌朝あらためて捜索を開始した。

 まもなく男は発見された。憔悴し、リフト乗り場に向かって降りてくるところだった。

 事情をきくと、クマに出あって殺されるのではないかと怖くなって戻ってきたという。この時期、クマは冬眠に備え活発に動いているから、地元の人たちはありうることだと思った。だが、山に登った理由をきいて呆れた。

 自殺しようと思ったが、クマに殺されるのはいやだったというのだ。自殺者はどんな死に方でもいいというわけではないらしい。

 男は死にそこなった。いや、クマが男の命を助けたのかもしれない。

 これが、層雲峡で、この秋一番の話題になった。